Political Chessboard: Are Nigeria’s Power Families Playing Both Sides Ahead of 2027

As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, a noticeable pattern is emerging within some of the country’s most influential political families  strategic positioning across rival parties.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has, at various times, publicly backed opposition movements, even as his daughter Iyabo Obasanjo has been associated with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The contrast has triggered fresh debate about whether such alignments reflect personal convictions or calculated political insurance.

The situation is not isolated. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar remains a dominant opposition voice, while political activities involving his son have also drawn attention. Likewise, former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai and his son have remained visible in evolving political conversations.

A Familiar Strategy?

Nigeria’s political history suggests this is not new. During the transition that led to the formation of the APC in 2013, several high-profile politicians moved between parties as alliances shifted ahead of the 2015 elections. In previous cycles, political heavyweights have also maintained relationships across party lines, often resurfacing in positions of influence regardless of which platform secured victory.

Analysts note that in Nigeria’s fluid political system where party ideology is often secondary to power blocs cross-party networks can function as a form of political risk management. By maintaining relevance in multiple camps, influential families may remain strategically positioned no matter how electoral tides turn

Strategy or Coincidence?

There is no direct evidence suggesting coordinated family strategies. Political participation is an individual constitutional right, and party affiliation does not automatically imply collective planning. However, critics argue that such patterns reinforce perceptions of elite dominance where influence appears to transcend party boundaries.

With more than 18 registered political parties in Nigeria and a history of major defections before nearly every general election, observers say 2027 may witness even more realignments.

Whether these alignments are driven by conviction, ambition, or calculated foresight remains open to interpretation. What is certain is that Nigeria’s political battlefield is already being shaped long before campaign posters begin to flood the streets.